Tomorrow’s Wales will have a stand at the National Eisteddfod in Blaenau Gwent and we are looking for volunteers to help. If you can spare a morning or afternoon we can offer you a free entrance ticket to the maes. We are looking especially for helpers on the first Saturday and Sunday.
Please contact cymruyfory@stratamatrix.co.uk if you are available.
Thank you!
Ahead of the end of the Electoral Commission’s consultation on the referendum question, the proposals of the Secretary of State for Wales have been criticised by a number of commentators in the press and on the internet.
In the Western Mail yesterday, the Chair of the All-Wales Convention Sir Emyr Jones-Parry said the question was ‘misleading’, as it does not adequately reflect the choice on offer.
On its blog today, the Institute of Welsh Affairs says that the question in its current form is ‘tendentious’, and ’suggests that the status quo that would be delivered by a No vote would be “a moderate, middle ground and common sense way to proceed’.
Meanwhile, on his Devolution Matters blog Alan Trench suggests that the question is ambiguous and imprecise.
What do you think of the referendum question? Have your say by adding a comment below.
In a Tomorrow’s Wales event at the Royal Welsh Show this week Elin Jones AM highlighted the need for further legislative powers to be devolved to the National Assembly for Wales, which can only be achieved through a successful referendum. The Minister drew attention to the Red Meat LCO and Measure that took three years to pass through two governments and two Committees in both Cardiff and London.
Elin Jones, the Minister for Rural Affairs said:
“There is no doubt that rural and agricultural interests have been served well by devolution and government in Wales. However, a more streamlined and responsive democratic process would see the Senedd better serve the interests of rural Wales.
“Agricultural and rural legislation is better developed and scrutinised in Wales, because it can be more appropriately tailored to the needs of Wales. The current legislative process is wasteful of resources and democratic scrutiny.
“There is no better example of this than the recent Red Meat LCO and Measure. This has been a wholly uncontroversial piece of legislative transfer. However, it has still taken three years to achieve legislation - and in the meantime, the legislation was developed by two Governments - in Cardiff and London - and then scrutinised by two sets of Committees and Legislatures, in Cardiff and London.
“It is now time to give the National Assembly its own legislative powers so that rural Wales can achieve its aspirations within Welsh democratic scrutiny.”
Moving to part four of the Government of Wales Act 2006 will give the National Assembly law-making powers that will enable elected members in Wales to create laws according to the needs and interests of Wales.
Gareth Vaughan, the Farmers’ Union Wales president said:
“Farming is an integral part of the landscape and culture of Wales, and decisions that might suit other parts of the UK have the potential to damage not only Welsh agriculture but also our landscapes, communities and culture. Devolution, which was fully supported by the FUW, has given powers to Welsh policy makers to focus on Welsh issues; it means we can lobby people who are elected in Wales for decisions to be made that suit Wales, and that the majority of important decisions affecting our industry are not taken by people in London who know nothing about our industry and may never have even been to Wales.
“We may not always agree with the decisions made by Welsh policy makers, but I have no doubt that without devolution our grievances would be far more numerous and acute.”
In their evidence to the All-Wales Convention, National Farmers’ Union Cymru said:
“In NFU Cymru’s experience devolution has brought politicians and government much closer to the people of Wales, giving us much easier access to both than had been possible previously.
“Securing a historic approach to the single farm payment is a positive outcome to devolution which would not have been possible had it not been devolved to Wales. Wales’s simpler system allowed for swifter payments to farmers.
“It is our view that the advent to devolution has done much to lift the self esteem and national mood of Wales as a nation, and there appears to be a growing awareness from outside Wales that there is scope to do things differently in Wales.”
The meeting will be on Tuesday July 20th at 3pm in the S4C Pavilion. The speakers will be Elin Jones AM and Aled Rees, winner of the S4C competition Fferm Ffactor. Light refreshments provided.
Following Cheryl Gillan’s announcement yesterday that the referendum on the Assembly’s powers would take place in the first quarter of next year, Cymru Yfory’s David Llywelyn Davies and True Wales’ Rachel Banner appeared on Good Morning Wales today (about 2h 34m in) to discuss issues surrounding the date and more.
The arguments Rachel Banner put forward in favour of a No vote were depressingly familiar, and far-removed from what is actually on the table in the referendum. We heard how the ‘political elites in Cardiff Bay’ are merely grabbing more power for themselves, that this referendum is part of the process of Wales separating from the UK, that a Yes vote would cost more and that the Assembly should instead concentrate on ‘Health, Education and the Economy’. Let’s take these points in turn:
The political elites
If it is the political elites that reside in Cardiff Bay, why is it that according to recent polling carried out by YouGov and the Insitute of Welsh Politics almost two to one of respondents believe that the Assembly should have more influence over governing Wales than Westminster, let alone the fact that the current UK Cabinet does not have a single Member representing a Welsh constituency?
‘The slippery slope to separation’
This referendum is not about independence. A Yes vote would not mean Wales ‘cutting itself off from the rest of the UK’, it would give us simpler, more effective government within a UK framework, and allow us to act swiftly for the benefit of our people and our communities.
Increased costs
As we have pointed out before, evidence published by the All Wales Convention shows that resources that are currently tied up in the inefficient and wasteful LCO process would be better spent on making laws more quickly and more clearly, and in a more joined-up way.
Health, Education and the Economy
Health and Education are fields already devolved to Wales. And yet, under the current flawed system, we have been unable to legislate fully on issues like improving the rights of mental health patients in Wales and providing safer school transport without wasting years in having to ask permission from Whitehall first. As David said this morning, why on earth wouldn’t we want these powers in Wales, especially given that the responsibility is already with the Assembly? In fact, the Assembly can only begin to properly concentrate on doing all it can to improve Health and Education once this mess is sorted out.
Finally, it was clear once again that True Wales has no answer when challenged on what positive benefits would be retained in the event of a No vote. The example of the smoking ban was proof enough of this – for the families of hundreds of people who lost their lives in the two years it took the Assembly to get powers on banning smoking this referendum is not about banal constitutional debate, or mythical political elites.
In a guest blog for Cymru Yfory, Political Commentator Lee Waters looks at the challenges facing the Yes campaign in the forthcoming referendum on the Assembly’s powers.
Though they present themselves as political innocents the No campaigners are sophisticated political operators. And though opinion polls consistently show that they are out of touch with Welsh public opinion, once the date is named for a referendum they’ll be given an equal platform by the broadcasters.
So how should progressives deal with their backward looking pessimism?
1 It’s about the future
As flawed as the law making system is the referendum is not going to be about mechanics. There are bags of evidence that the LCO system is not working but it is of little interest to most voters. There is little profit in getting drawn into opaque arguments about the Government of Wales Act. The Yes campaign needs to focus on the future.
The No campaigners will dust off the Leo Abse playbook and conjure up the bogeymen of the past – the elites, the language fanatics, the constitutional obsessives who care little about bread and butter issues in their quest for an independent Wales. But the Yes campaign must not be distracted by the dog whistle tactics of the 1970s. We must frame the debate to be about the future and not the past.
Over the last decade the Assembly has gradually grown in stature and confidence. A Yes vote will help take Wales forward, giving Wales a stronger voice. It will give those we elect the tools to protect our communities from Whitehall indifference.
2 Hope not despair
We face tough times in the coming years and the Yes campaign must set out an optimistic vision for the future and contrast it with the backward looking message of the No campaign.
The choice is between a more confident Wales where young people don’t need to leave their communities in search of jobs and challenges, or a dependency culture where we look to others for solutions to our problems.
What is the vision of the future offered by the No campaigners?
3 The consequences of voting No
The majority of voters want to see devolution succeed, but the No campaigners want to hobble our Assembly.
They present a No vote in the referendum as a risk-free venture. Defeat the elites, says Oxford-educated Rachel Banner, and let Assembly Members carry on as they are. But staying as we are is not an option. If Wales votes no to the proposals for modest reform, the Assembly’s ability to stand up for Wales will begin to unravel.
We already know that London officials need little excuse to sideline Welsh affairs. If there is a no vote the slow and complicated system of law-making will get even worse. The holes in the devolution settlement will be systematically exploited as Whitehall mandarins feel they have a green light to frustrate the Assembly’s requests.
So the status quo is not an option. Forward or back, that’s the option. And let’s not pretend otherwise.
It is good to see that David Cameron and the UK coalition government intend ‘respect’ to be the hallmark of its relationships with devolved governments. In Wales the agreement to ‘take forward the Sustainable Homes Legislative Competence Order’, which the Conservatives in opposition had managed to block, may be an indication of that respect.
The proposals on funding for Scotland and Wales however suggest that the former is to be accorded more respect than the latter.
On page 28 of the Programme for Government document we read that ‘we will review the control and use of accumulated and future revenues from the Fossil Fuel Levy in Scotland’. That’s pretty unequivocal, and the advantage to the Scottish Parliament’s budget is likely to be substantial.
Not so the issue of the demonstrable injustice of the current funding arrangements for Wales. The ‘concerns expressed by the Holtham Commission’ are recognised (which is some way short of accepting the substance of Holtham’s findings), but action to correct the injustice must await ‘the stabilisation of the public finances’ which, need one emphasise is likely to take a long time. The spin that the ‘priority must be to reduce the deficit’ is of course is irrelevant: correcting an injustice in funding terms is as important in times of scarcity as it is in times of plenty – indeed it is probably more so.
The gross inequity in the funding for Scotland and Wales under the Barnett formula has a long pedigree. Those interested in the story should read Tomorrow’s Wales’s evidence to the Holtham Commission and the House of Lords Barnett Committee of Inquiry. It has nothing to do with justice and everything to do with the comparative esteem in which Wales and Scotland are held by the UK Government.
What has this to do with the forthcoming referendum and the issue of proper law-making powers of the National Assembly? Quite a lot, it seems. The Coalition’s Programme for Government document also says, ‘Depending on the outcome of the forthcoming referendum, we will establish a process similar to the Calman Commission for the Welsh [sic] Assembly.’ (Calman considered issues of funding as well as further powers for the Scottish Parliament.)
Try breaking the code and you might get something like: ‘We shall see from the result of the forthcoming referendum whether you Welsh deserve to be taken seriously and your grievances addressed’.
It looks as if a resounding Yes vote is vital, not just to get a more effective, more democratic system of government for Wales, but to get at least some of the extra cash we need to protect us in what promises to be a time of hardship.
If, as Len Gibbs of ‘True Wales’ suggests (29 May), the population as a whole has a poor understanding of devolution, then his letter to the Western Mail on the referendum question will not have done much to enlighten it.
There is no hidden agenda here. The referendum cannot, and will not, offer independence or autonomy. It cannot, and will not, provide law-making powers in any area of policy other than those already under the Assembly’s responsibility. Those areas of policy are already fixed and are not up for debate.
The choice before the people of Wales is this: either we stick with a system where the Assembly has to keep asking Westminster’s permission to pass legislation in policy areas already devolved to it OR we change to a system where the Assembly can simply legislate in those same specific fields without wasting tremendous amounts of time, money, patience and good will.
The reason for people’s alleged confusion about devolution is precisely the same reason that the referendum question is so difficult to frame – we need a simpler system, and a yes vote in a referendum will provide it.
Now that the excitement of the general election is over we can focus once again on the referendum on stronger law making powers for the Assembly.
At the moment it’s looking unlikely that a referendum will be held in October. We should know the exact situation by June 17th - that’s when the Secretary of State for Wales, Cheryl Gillan, must respond to the unanimous request by Assembly Members for a referendum.
Whenever the referendum will be held there is a great deal of work to be done to convince people that is is vitally important that we have stronger law making powers and that we need to go out to vote. And that’s where the work of Tomorrow’s Wales is so important.
Here are a few ideas about what you can do over the coming months:
Our new website dedicated to the referendum will be ready within days and we are keen to have plenty of news from supporters.
Here are some ideas:
It will be easy to send material to the website, but we will have to moderate everything before publishing. Please remember to get in touch if you need any resources or leaflets, or want to join or set up a local group.
We currently have groups set up in Aberystwyth, Carmarthen, Pontypridd, Wrexham, Cardiff, Cwmbran, Caernarfon and Swansea.
Two more have also been organised:
Monday June 14th at 7.30pm in the Park Hotel, Park Crescent, Barry CF62 6HE
Wednesday 23rd June at 7.30pm in the Community Centre, Mount Lane, Llanidloes SY18 6EX
If any of these are too far for you, and you would be interested in setting up a group in your area, please get in touch and we can help you set up a campaign group.
On Wednesday evening last week inhabitants of the Cardiff Bay bubble gathered at the Pierhead for an event organised by AM Bethan Jenkins and the Bevan Foundation for an evening devoted to the subject of how a successful referendum campaign should be run. With the Pierhead having been given a new lease of life by the National Assembly, it was perhaps a fitting location as attention turns once again to the question of the timing of the referendum on granting the institution primary lawmaking powers.
The assembled panel was a distinguished one; Dr Matt Qvortrup (a leading European expert on referenda), Nigel Smith (former Chair of the Yes campaign in Scotland), Quintin Oliver (former Director of the Yes campaign in the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement Referendum) and Daran Hill (former National Organiser, Yes for Wales campaign).
Following a stimulating discussion that took in Abba, Charles de Gaulle and inflatable elephants as reference points, it became clear that there is much to ponder for those concerned with securing a Yes vote in the coming referendum. As the audience heard, even the best-laid plans can go wrong, but there is no substitute for a well planned and well executed campaign.
Preparations must be made before the campaign begins proper. Coalition building is essential; as Daran Hill pointed out the support of the Welsh Conservatives (whose attitudes towards devolution have transformed since 1997) could be a decisive factor in tilting the balance in favour of a Yes vote in the upcoming referendum. Getting an effective cross-party campaign together is not easy, though; we heard how parties who are normally rivals that find themselves on the same side of a particular issue could be unwilling to pool money in a campaign if it means depleting their election coffers, not to mention the inevitable unwillingness to co-operate if parties are fighting election and referendum campaigns that will be decided on the same day.
Celebrity endorsement must be handled with care, and should not be relied upon in lieu of the presence of a clear message if indeed it is to be used at all. This tactic backfired during the Swedish referendum on entering the Euro in 2003, when the Yes campaign employed Bjorn and Benny of Abba fame, with whom the ‘ordinary Svenson’ (or Joe Bloggs to those uninitiated in Swedish slang) could not identify.
Having an authentic and meaningful message is critical, and investment in solid benchmark polling must be made to ensure that the message is one that will resonate around the average breakfast table. As well as having a solid platform themselves, campaigners must be ready to undermine and rebut opposition arguments swiftly and comprehensively. Equally, opinion formers and the media should be well briefed on the issues and the referendum process, a crucial issue in Wales in light of the media deficit within Wales itself and the indifference (and occasional ignorance) of the UK media toward Welsh issues.
It’s not all about outspending the opposition and developing a cast-iron case, though. Sometimes a referendum can be defined by just one iconic image, as was the case with the referendum on the North East England regional Assembly in 2004. Over time the most striking (and unwelcome) presence at many Labour-organised events in support of a Yes vote was an inflatable white elephant, used by the No campaign to crystallise its message to great effect.
Once the message has been crafted and the campaign up and running, the next and final challenge is getting people out to vote. Over-confidence in this regard can be fatal: referendums can be lost through unintended abstentions on the part of voters who believe the outcome is not in doubt. An answer must be readied for those who will undoubtedly ask ‘why are you bothering me with this referendum now?’
Those who do bother to come out to vote don’t always answer the question on the ballot paper. In a situation where the status quo is undesirable (such as in times of recession for example), voters may be psychologically more inclined to vote for change. The audience heard how referendums held early in a government’s term and at the apex of its popularity tend to be won, with reference to the use of Tony Blair in the 1998 Northern Irish referendum at which point Blair, himself a brilliant campaigner, was at the height of his powers.
All in all, then, there is cause for optimism but plenty of cautionary tales for those in favour of a Yes vote here in Wales. As we have seen from Carwyn Jones’ announcement last week and the subsequent reaction, the timing of the Welsh referendum will be a serious bone of contention between competing forces from now until the date is finally decided. If the referendum is held on the same day as the Assembly election in 2011 (a proposal that was met with very little, if any support from Wednesday’s panel), that date could have major implications for the result.
This piece was originally published on the Institute of Welsh Affairs’ news magazine, ClickonWales.